Playoff Odds

 I believe this is a big game for the Seahawks.  For several reasons; need to prove they can win on the road, losing to a 2-4 team home or away will make fans look at you differently, and 5-3 in the first half where you were away from Century Link 5 out of 8 games sets you up nicely to make a playoff run.  It’s hard for me to picture Seattle any worse than 10-6 with a victory in Motown.  They get 5 out of 8 games at home in the second half, which “oh yeah” by the way some Harvard Nerds proved is the single hardest stadium to get a win for the opponents.   The three road games they have are Buffalo in Canada (EY or however you spell it), Chicago in Chicago like every fucking  year and at Miami in front of a sellout South Beach crowd of 13. I think they can muster 1-2 wins on the road and go undefeated at home.

 A lot of people have truly lost their shit over 0-3 in the division.  Oh no we’re 0-3 now we will never make the playoffs.  The Hawks get all three division rivals at the Clink in December and division records only count as a tie breaker.  Do you really feel in your heart of hearts that the Rams and Cardinals will not only beat you in Seattle but finish with the same record?  Yeah we’ll leave it at that.

Football Outsiders has Seattle at 63.3% chance of making the playoffs.  After 25,000 simulations of playing out the season drawing out wins and losses based on the Dave ratings which are Football outsiders pre-season projections mixed in with home field advantage.  The computers put the Hawks at 9.7 wins that’s the average of all the simulations.  So 9.7 wins gets you 63.3% chance of playing in January what would 10 or 11 wins get you?  Probably 65% or some shit like that haven’t figured out how they got 63.3% yet, but you get the point.

The whole point of this is that 5-3 is better than 4-4 obviously.  When this schedule first came out I saw 3-5.  Seattle in Seattle fashion beat the teams I thought they would lose to and lost to the teams I thought they would beat.  I said “If they can just pull off 4-4 they would be in good shape”.  Well that’s the worst case scenario now.   They not only have a chance at 5-3, but should be at 5-3 after this weekend.  Seattle is better than Detroit, they have more talent than Detroit.  With how this team is growing and will become even more dangerous in the second half of the season.  5-3 is a beautiful thing.

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